Weekly Sports Betting Analysis

December 15–20, 2025 | ROI +50%

Introduction: An Irregular, Yet Profitable Week

The week of December 15 to 20, 2025 has been one of the most demanding of the year in terms of consistency. With a total of 20 predictions analyzed, the hit rate was far from usual levels.
However, thanks to a correct identification of odds with real value, the final balance of the week was positive, closing with an ROI of +50%.

This report has a clear objective: to explain how, even in weeks with high volatility and a low win rate, a strategy based on value betting can remain profitable. We analyze data, errors, successes, and necessary adjustments with total transparency.

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Key Performance Metrics

Summary of the main indicators for the week:

• Total predictions: 20
• Bets won: 5
• Win Rate: 25%
• Weekly ROI: +50%

These results reinforce an essential principle:

Profitability does not depend on the number of correct predictions, but on betting only when the odds offer a real mathematical advantage.

A low win rate is perfectly compatible with sustainable profits if the odds are correctly misaligned with the real probability.

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Week's Notable Successes

Argentina U20 W vs Colombia U20 W — WON

• Competition: Women's Friendlies
• Pick: Argentina U20 W Victory
• Odds: 1.80

This match was one of the pillars of the positive weekly performance.

Key success factors:

• Correct evaluation of recent form
• Technical and physical differential between teams
• Well-weighted home advantage
• Market with lower efficiency and lower liquidity

This result confirms that secondary markets continue to offer clear opportunities when the analysis is precise and the market is not fully optimized.

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Critical Analysis of Relevant Failures

Valencia vs Mallorca — LOST (x4)

• Competition: LaLiga
• Pick: Valencia Victory
• Odds: 1.80

This was the main focus of losses for the week and requires specific analysis.

What happened

The system identified Valencia's victory as a value bet in several executions, leading to overexposure to the same event.

Error diagnosis

1. Duplication of signals
   The system allowed the same prediction to be repeated for a single match.

2. Overestimation of favoritism
   The odds did not correctly reflect the real competitive context of the match.

3. Improvable risk management
   Concentrating several bets on a single event amplified the negative impact.

This type of error does not invalidate the model, but it does highlight the need for stricter technical controls.

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Performance by Competition

Conclusion:
Main markets showed greater efficiency this week, while lower exposure markets offered the best value opportunities.

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Lessons Learned

A week with positive ROI is not without lessons. The main areas for improvement identified are:

1. Total blocking of duplicate bets
   The same event should not be able to be executed more than once.

2. Exposure limits per match
   Regardless of the detected value, risk per event will be limited.

3. Review of weightings in major leagues
   Fine-tuning of variables in highly efficient markets.

4. Prioritize quality over volume
   Fewer bets, but with a clearer mathematical advantage.

5. Systematic post-mortem analysis
   Each relevant loss will be audited to detect biases or structural failures.

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Outlook for Next Week

Looking ahead to next week, the following adjustments will be implemented:

• Improvement in value detection filters
• Greater diversification of competitions
• Reduction of exposure in highly efficient leagues
• Real-time monitoring of system anomalies

The goal is not to avoid difficult weeks, but to remain profitable in the long term, even when the market becomes more aggressive.

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Mathematical advantage does not eliminate variance.
Discipline and analysis do guarantee sustainability.